The World Trade Organization (WTO) has halved its growth forecast for the global trade in goods in 2023 due to various factors, including inflation, high interest rates, a strained property market in China and the war in Ukraine.
According to Reuters, the WTO said October 5 that merchandise trade volumes would grow by just 0.8% in 2023, less than half of the 1.7% estimate that came in April.
The WTO also said that goods trade growth could increase to 3.3% in 2024, which aligns with forecasts in April that estimated a 3.2% rise.
The WTO noted that the trade slowdown had a particularly strong impact on iron, steel, textiles and clothing as well as office and telecommunications equipment. Cars were not affected by downward trending trade forecasts with sales surging in 2023.
The share of intermediate goods in world trade fell to 48.5% during the first half of this year, a slight drop-off compared to the 51.0% average seen over the last three years.
“The data suggest that goods continue to be produced through complex supply chains, but that the extent of these chains may have reached their high-water mark,” said the WTO, a Geneva, Switzerland-based 164-member trade body that was founded in January of 1995.
