S&P is out with it expectations for the UAW strike and implications. They say
- Warns that if the UAW strike continues for over a week and expands, it could lead to significant reductions in earnings and liquidity in the US auto sector for 2023.
- Predicts a slowdown in U.S. auto sector momentum in the second half of 2023 and expects volumes to remain flat in 2024.
- Anticipates that a quick resolution to the UAW strike is unlikely.
- Expects automaker ratings to remain stable, accounting for industry volatility in their financial risk assessments.
- Believes the Detroit 3 automakers have a modest inventory cushion compared to the industry average.
- Believes that as of September 1, both GM and Ford had sufficient vehicle inventories to prevent any significant permanent earnings or market share loss.
- Notes that GM seems to be about two weeks short on SUV segment inventories compared to the industry average.
- As of September 1, believes Stellantis might have proactively overstocked some high-volume models.
- Suggests the UAW strike might temporarily boost new vehicle gross profits for dealers, but GPU is expected to decline to more normalized levels in the coming year.
- Warns that if the UAW strike lasts beyond 8 weeks, dealers might begin to run out of parts, impacting them negatively.
- States that a UAW strike will not significantly impact the majority of auto suppliers from a ratings perspective.
