A research piece from Morgan Stanley over the weekend saying that Chinese consumer spending won’t return to pre-COVID levels anytime soon. MS forecast:
- an expected +9% in Chinese consumers’ spending during 2023
- but lower at +4.8% in 2024
The factors MS point to:
1. unlike the US and other nations in the wake of COVID, China has not given consumers stimulus checks
2. 30 million service sector jobs that would have existed before COVID have been removed due to regulatory changes and pandemic restrictions.
- approximately 20 million of those jobs are projected to return later this year and next. However, economists predict that it would take longer to recover the remaining 10 million people because of Beijing’s crackdown on property, internet technology, and education.
3. despite government efforts to curtail speculation, the housing market has continued to be weak
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Earlier posts on China today:
