• 25 of 28 economists expect BOJ to keep policy steady next week
  • The other 3 economists expect a start of easy policy unwinding
  • 63% of economists expect BOJ to end negative interest rates in 2024 (up from 52% in September, and 41% in August)
  • The remainder expect the end of negative rates to be 2025 or later
  • 69% of economists expect BOJ to end YCC by the end of 2024 (down from 78% in September)

It’s tough to read much into the poll data but there is a growing consensus that there will be significant policy changes coming in Japan next year. The roadmap is pretty much laid out quite clearly. The BOJ will first have to acknowledge higher inflation pressures and then work to incorporate the stronger wage growth into their outlook as well. Only then can they start pushing significant changes but then again, this should have been a conversation that already took place a few months back. So, there’s your answer as to why the Japanese yen has continued to weaken in the meantime.

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/news/poll-boj-set-to-put-an-end-to-negative-rates-in-2024-20231026/