It’s tough to assess in exactly is happening in Gaza because electricity and communications have been largely cut off but it appears as though Israel’s ground offensive is underway. It came with an overwhelming number of airstrikes and reports of tanks entering in the northeastern corner of Gaza.

In any case, it hasn’t expanded into a broader Middle Eastern war. If anything, the US is signalling that it wants de-escalation. A general meant to advise Israel on a ground war has been recalled, ostensibly because the US advised Israel against a broad ground war and instead in favor of something more targeted. Evidently, Israel rejected that advice.

Now that could all be a smokescreen but I haven’t seen many signs that the US is trying to escalate this into a war with Iran, aside from a few leaks to the WSJ blaming Iran.

In any case, I expect this will set up as a sell-the-fact trade because so long as fighting is limited to Gaza, it’s a non-factor for the global economy.