• XAU/USD maintains a bullish bias despite the current sell-off.
  • The US economic figures should bring sharp movements later.
  • Poor US data should lift the yellow metal.

The gold price ended its strong bull run and turned to the downside. The precious metal is trading at $2,038 at the time of writing.

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Yesterday, the XAU/USD rallied after the ECB. The European Central Bank increased the Main Refinancing Rate from 3.50% to 3.75%, matching expectations.

Furthermore, the yellow metal was lifted by poor US economic data. The Unemployment Claims were reported at 242K versus 239K expected and versus 229K in the previous reporting period, while Trade Balance came in at -64.2B versus -63.7B forecasts.

Today, the Switzerland CPI registered only a 0.0% growth versus the 0.2% growth estimated. Later, the fundamentals should strongly impact the markets.

The Non-Farm Employment Change is expected at 181K in April versus 236K in March. The Unemployment Rate could jump from 3.5% to 3.6%, while Average Hourly Earnings may report a 0.3% growth again.

Better than expected US data boosts the greenback and forces the XAU/USD to drop deeper. On the contrary, poor US data could lift the yellow metal.

Gold price technical analysis: Strong selling momentum

Gold price
Gold price chart

Technically, the XAU/USD failed to approach $2,067 on Thursday’s high, and now it may attempt to reach the $2,030 former low. You knew from my previous analysis that the bias remains bullish as long as it stays above the median line (ml) of the ascending pitchfork.

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Gold escaped from the up-channel pattern signaling that the swing higher ended and the sellers could take full control. Still, the US data should be decisive today.

The bias is bullish, so false breakdowns below the support levels may announce a new bullish momentum. From the technical point of view, after its current sell-off, we cannot exclude a rebound after reaching $2,030.

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Source: https://www.forexcrunch.com/gold-price-falling-back-to-2030-ahead-of-the-us-nfp/