AUD/USD Outlook: Australia’s Employment Data Misses the Mark

  • Australia recorded a net increase of 6,700 jobs in September.
  • Australia’s unemployment rate dropped to 3.6%.
  • The RBA assessed that the labor market has reached a turning point.

Australia’s September jobs missed expectations, casting a bearish shadow on the AUD/USD outlook. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate decreased slightly, indicating that the labor market remained highly competitive.

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This jobs report alone didn’t impact market expectations regarding a potential interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia next month. However, it does elevate the importance of the third-quarter inflation report. The report will play a pivotal role in the decision-making process. Notably, there was a net increase of 6,700 jobs in September, a decline from the previous month’s remarkable rise of 63,300. Meanwhile, market predictions had suggested an increase of approximately 20,000 jobs. On the other hand, the unemployment rate dropped to 3.6%, slightly below the expected 3.7%. 

In the meantime, markets continued to factor in a roughly 25% probability of a quarter-point increase in the cash rate to 4.35% next month. The labor market displayed remarkable resilience, with a net addition of 394,300 jobs in the 12 months leading up to September.

Nonetheless, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) assessed that the labor market has reached a turning point. The job growth in September was primarily driven by a surge of 46,500 part-time jobs, which more than offset a decline of 39,900 in full-time employment. 

AUD/USD key events today

After Australia’s employment report, AUD/USD traders are awaiting major events from the US like:

  • Fed chair Jerome Powell’s speech.
  • The initial jobless claims report.
  • The existing home sales report.
  • The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.

AUD/USD technical outlook: Bears poised to break below 0.6300.

AUD/USD technical outlook
AUD/USD 4-hour chart

The AUD/USD price is facing the 0.6300 support level again. This is the third time that bears are challenging this support level. Moreover, the price has failed to break below 0.6300 in the previous two attempts. Bulls are ever ready to push the price higher at this level.

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Still, looking at the price on a larger scale, it is clear that it is making lower highs. This is a sign that bulls are getting weaker with every push higher. Moreover, the price is well below the 30-SMA with the RSI nearly oversold. Therefore, there is a good possibility bears will break below 0.6300 to continue the decline.

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Source: https://www.forexcrunch.com/aud-usd-outlook-australias-employment-data-misses-the-mark/

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